Lula Won 6.4 Million NonVoters in the Second Round, Flavio Won .3

Almost everyone who didn’t vote in the first round voted for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) in the second round. What are the chances? The following clip explaining it translates to:

“What else caught attention in the 2nd round: Those who nullified or didn’t vote in the 1st round gave +6.4 million votes to Lula and only +0.3 million to Flávio. No model expected this, not even ours. Preview by municipality; the study by section is coming soon to improve precision in the 2026 numbers.”

That is 23 times what Bolsonaro received in the second round.

Lula needed 4.3 million ballots and got 6.4 million from those who didn’t vote the first time. It’s unbelievable.

👀 O que mais chamou atenção no 2º turno:

Quem anulou ou não votou no 1º turno deu +6,4 mi de votos a Lula e só +0,3 mi a Flávio.

Nenhum modelo esperava isso, nem o nosso.

Prévia por município; o estudo por seção vem aí para melhorar a precisão nos números de 2026. https://t.co/Ok8DytMRJc

— EleicaoBR (@Eleicao_BR) October 26, 2026

What Happened?

Since 1989, no candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win the runoff. Did Lula reach 6.4 million who stayed home? Did he send his army out to get their votes?

Massive communist, student-led anti-Bolsonaro protests after the first round have allegedly buoyed Lula’s campaign. It hardly seems that it could have made that big a difference.

Additionally, 60% of the votes for other candidates went to Lula despite four of the five backing Bolsonaro.

IBT reported a paradox they can’t reconcile. Four of the five candidates eliminated in the first round endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro before the runoff.  Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema, writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury, and Clariana Barão of the DC party backed Bolsonaro. Together, they represented more than 5.3 percentage points of valid first-round votes. On paper, this bloc should have taken Bolsonaro above 52%. Instead, he finished with 48.21%, more than four points below the theoretical ceiling those endorsements suggested.

The biggest controversy is over the extended two-hour voting period. The justice who ruled to allow it is Lula’s former lawyer. There is no rule that allowed it, and it created chaos. Some reports say only Lula’s districts were opened. It is too early to know the truth.

Appealing to the Lula Court about this election seems fruitless.

Featured Image: Wikimedia Commons