James Talarico Leads But in Comes a Hero
Three polls released Tuesday and Wednesday show state Rep. James Talarico (D) ahead of Texas Republican Ken Paxton, a serious Conservative.
Talarico is leading Paxton by 3 percentage points among likely voters. Nothing has changed since August. However, pollsters favor Democrats by 2-4 percentage points and use polls to depress Republican votes.
The polls are Siena and Marist, neither of which is the best. That doesn’t mean Republicans shouldn’t be concerned, and Talarico has led from the start.
Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since 1994, when the Democratic Party was a normal party. Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock won reelection in 1994 with down-ballot candidates. Democrat Ann Richards won the governorship in 1990. The last Democrat senator, appointed to the Senate, lost to Kay Bailey Hutchison in 1993.
Republicans need Texas to survive nationally. The other concern is how extreme and bizarre James Talarico is. His agenda is far-left. He is anti-captialism.
Elon Musk to the Rescue
The awe-inspiring genius has become the biggest donor in this election cycle.
Elon Musk is investing heavily, and it’s infuriating Democrats like House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries. Meanwhile, Talarico has vastly outspent Paxton for months, much of it from deep-pocketed out-of-state donors.
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, a major super PAC supporting Senate Republicans. Talarico has more than double the funds to spend on campaign propaganda.
Musk gave $75 million on September 9 and $83 million on September 22 to the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF).
The SLF almost immediately transferred those exact amounts ($75 million on September 10 and $83 million on September 24) to a new group called Texas PAC, which heavily funded television ads and air support for Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico.
Beyond the $158 million funneled through the SLF, Musk also contributed $10 million to the pro-Paxton group Lone Star Liberty PAC and over $76 million to his own super PAC, America PAC, bringing his total federal midterm contributions past $276 million.
Most news outlets are rooting against Paxton and trying to depress the polls. Additionally, a seemingly vengeful John Cornyn and campaign architect Karl Rove will not back Paxton, which is a problem for Paxton. Rove is also voting for a different Democrat in the railroad commissioner race.
